Written by AFL Online on 16th Jul 2009
An interesting round ahead for punters. A few things have caught my eye as we look in to the round ahead. As a Carlton supporter I was shocked when Centrebet opened the Swans up at $4.60 at the start of the week. They’ve had the wood on the Blues the past 11 times they’ve met, Carlton haven’t beaten them since 2000 and have never beaten them at Etihad Stadium.
When doing my preview on Odds-On Footy I came across more tasty odds, Essendon/Bulldogs total match points 221+ @ $1.90 on Centrebet. The past 4 times these teams have met the total match points have been 272, 229, 226 & 256 and with the Bombers playing a more attacking style its hard to see these two teams not getting over the 221 point margin.
Now on to this weeks multi…
Leg 1: Melbourne Line +47½ @ $1.92
You probably think I’m an idiot for putting money anywhere near Melbourne this season, especially margin betting against Geelong! I may very well learn a lesson here but reading the stories of a few punters who have been bitten on the arse before for tipping the Cats to smash Geelong. The past 4 times these teams have played at Skilled the cats have won twice by margins of 14 & 30 points, they drew once and another time Melbourne got up to win by a point. Geelong still have a few key players out and the Demons have their tales up coming off two wins on the trot. I’m expecting Geelong to ease home but not to comfortably.
Leg 1: Collingwood Line -17½ @ $1.94
I keep hearing that punters keep backing the Hawks, it astounds me to be perfectly honest. I still haven’t seen anything to suggest that they’ll get any better. Last week they just got over the line after North Melbourne had control on the game for three quarters. Collingwood are coming of a thrilling 1 point win against the Western Bulldogs and will have an extra two days break on their opponents Hawthorn who traveled to Tassie last round and had to play in some of the worst conditions possible. I’m tipping a big Collingwood win here. Alan Didak to pickup another 3 Brownlow votes.
Leg 1: Brisbane Line -17½ @ $1.90
Fremantle don’t want to win this one and are playing as many kids as they can get on the park. Sure they might put up a bit more fight than they did last week but against a quality team in Brisbane I would be extremely surprised if they got within 3 goals. Still no Pav or Sandiland in the Freo squad makes for one to believe that they’ll be competitive. I can’t believe I thought they’d be competitive against Adelaide last week!
Combined Odds: $7.08