Written by AFL Online on 2nd Apr 2009
Flopped out last week, managed to tip all 8 winners in one competition but struggled with the margins in my multi’s, I’m a Carlton supporter and never expected us to destroy Richmond by 83 points. Geelong were looking good before the took the foot of the pedal and let the Hawks back into the game. Same thing goes with Essendon, really collapsed in that final quarter, I was worried they might even upset Port Adelaide at 3 quarter time. I picked the good value Brisbane though to win by under 24.5 points @ $3.85.
Round one was always going to be tricky & I went overboard. This week I’m just going to pick a handful of teams that should win and see what value we can get.
Leg 1: Adelaide – WIN @ $1.62
Like I said earlier, I tipped Adelaide to win last week. Mainly due to the fact I think Collingwood are overrated but Adelaide have definitely flown under peoples radars over preseason. They have a good bunch of kids coming through such as Walker and Petrenko and oldies such as McLeod proved they still have it. St Kilda on the other hand did manage to come back from behind to beat Sydney but didn’t overly impress me. Also taking into account that St Kilda have only beaten Adelaide twice at AAMI Stadium, the first time being in 1991 when they crows first entered into the competition.
Leg 2: Geelong – WIN @ $1.08
There is no possible way Geelong are going to lose this match at Skilled Stadium. There is no value in this bet at all but adding the extra leg will up the value in itself. Expect Richmond to come out with some fire in their belly but the Cats are just a class above.
Leg 3: Collingwood – WIN @ $1.17
Again, there is no value in this bet but Collingwood are sure things. Mind you I wouldn’t risk punting on this game come Queens Birthday when they face a packed MCG.
Leg 4: Hawthorn – WIN @ $1.42
Sydney are typically bad starters in any season but perhaps they are finally beginning their decent down the ladder. Whatever the case at ANZ Stadium the Hawks should take a comfortable win over the Swans. The value is well worth putting in the multi-bet.
Leg 5: Essendon – WIN @ $1.80
Essendon are sure things in this one. They showed a bit against Port Adelaide and playing in front of there first home crowd for the year they should lift. As for Fremantle, well, it’s going to be another long season for them. They will struggle to win at Subiaco let alone in Melbourne. Play Pavlich in the forward line Harvey!! He is one of the leagues best forwards, play him there!
Multi-Bet Value: $5.232
Potential Payout: $52.85
For the record I also did the same bet with Brisbane replacing Adelaide for a value of around $10. Carlton deserve to go into the game as favourites but not $1.30 favourites. Brisbane are every chance of winning that game.