Written by Michael on 19th Apr 2013
Looking ahead at round 4 and there is some tough games to predict. It doesn’t get much tougher than tonight’s match between two top sides in Sydney and Geelong.
Personally it’s to tough to pick a winner here. Sydney are an extremely well drilled side that always play to their advantage and to the oppositions disadvantage. At the SCG I would be tipping them despite the hot form of Geelong in recent weeks.
I do however like one market in this match. While these two sides have only played at the SCG twice in recent years and both games have been low scoring, tight matches. Looking at the forecast for Sydney tonight and they’re predicting rain and winds at 40 to 50 km/h. The redelopments at the stadium certainly won’t help keep the wind out of the stadium.
The past two matches between these sides at the SCG has seen an average of 144.5 total match points in each game. Sportsbet has the Over/Under Match Points market at 177.5.
So I’m really happy to take the under 177.5 on Sportsbet paying $1.88.
The next match I think has value is West Coast vs Carlton.
Most expect the Eagles to win with the game played at Patersons Stadium but their form line hasn’t been great this season with their only win coming after playing a half of good football against Melbourne last week.
These two sides have played in some close clashes in recent years and Carlton’s interstate record isn’t too bad. I’m giving the Blues a real chance to win this game but we’ll take the safer option and get them at the +18.5 line at $1.92
Sydney vs. Geelong, Total Match Points under 177.5 @ $1.88
Carlton +18.5 @ $1.92
Sydney vs. Geelong Total Match Points under 177.5, Carlton +18.5, North Melbourne H2H, Hawthorn H2H @ $5.53
Sydney vs Geelong, Draw At End Of Any Quarter @ $9