Written by AFL Online on 15th Apr 2011
I’m going to get straight in to round 4 this week and there is some value odds around if you’re willing to take a punt on some of the lower ranked clubs.
Collingwood are going in as incredibly short favourites in tonight’s clash with Richmond and they deserve to be so short. However I have a feeling we’re still yet to see the best of Collingwood and it could come out tonight and see them smash the Tigers by 100 or more. I’m leaning towards the other way and think Richmond might take confidence from the Draw with the Saints on the Friday night two rounds ago. The Richmond line of +48.5 is a big one, it’s not enough to tempt me but if you’re a fan of multi’s maybe throw it in.
Like Richmond the West Coast line of +39.5 against Hawthorn must also be kept in mind. The game is being played at Aurora Stadium in Tasmania, these two teams have met at the venue 5 times and not once has the margin gone beyond 40 points. The ground is known for its wet and windy conditions and although the forecast is for clear weather you just never know what to expect.
Staying on the Hawthorn if you like exotics it might be worth having a flutter on Buddy Franklin to kick the most goals in round 4, he likes Aurora Stadium and he is due for a big match!
Carlton vs Essendon is no doubt the game that has been built up the most during the week. Essendon have without a doubt impressed most AFL spectators. Carlton are on the record for saying they plan on stopping the run of Essendon and not getting in to a shoot-out with the fast Bombers who have won 6 of the past 7 matches against the Blues.
The thing that I like most about the Blues is their fixture. They are coming off an 8 day break whereas the Bombers had just a 6 day break.
Carlton head to head at $1.89 is value and if you like exotics I’m tipping Eddie Betts to fire up against the famous rivals and kick the most goals in the match paying $10!
Sydney vs Geelong is a tough one to judge, the Swans are playing typical Swans footy and grinding out wins. With the game being played at the SCG which is known to be a tough ground to win at I like the Swans line +4.5 because I feel the game will come down to less than a kick.
The last game I’m going to look at this week is Sunday arvo when the Suns will play their second home game against the Demons at the Gabba. People have been back the Suns in this week and expect them to put up a good fight. I just can’t see it happening and the Dees line of -36.5 is very juicy! I hope the Suns come good soon but just 3 games in to their debut season I can’t see them challenging just yet.
Carlton H2H – $1.89
Melbourne -36.5 – $1.92
Eddie Betts most goals vs Essendon – $10.00
Carlton – $1.89
Melbourne -36.5 – $1.92
Sydney +4.5 – $1.92
Multi Odds – $6.96