Written by AFL Online on 7th May 2010
Welcome to the first of what I hope will be a weekly column. Each week I’ll dissect the games to find the best value. I’m not only going to provide betting tips but an in depth analyse into each tip.
At first glance of round 7 there are already a few games that stand out to me.
I’ll kick things off with Friday night football as Melbourne host the Western Bulldogs at the MCG. The last time these two teams met was in round 8 last season, there was no upset that round as the Dogs won however the margin was a mere 9 points. Close matches between these two sides aren’t uncommon. In this decade alone 6 of there 18 meetings have been decided by less than 12 points and 3 of these have been in the past 3 seasons.
Statistically wise there isn’t a whole lot splitting these two teams this season. While no one expects the Dees to reach the heights that the Bulldogs are expected to this season I think they can definitely be competitive enough tonight playing at home where the Bulldogs might just be a little bit out of their comfort zone playing at a cold and windy MCG.
Tip: Melbourne line +26.5 at odds of $1.91 – Get on at Centrebet.com
The second game I like this week is Essendon vs Port Adelaide. Port Adelaide go into this game as underdogs, for what reason I have no idea. History says it all, Port has won 11 of its last 12 against the Bombers including the past 5. Credit where it’s due, Essendon were great against the Hawks last week. But Hawthorn are far from the powerhouse they were in 2008 and up until last round there form was very questionable. Meanwhile Port Adelaide have been cruising along nicely having won 4 from 6 this season including a shock win over St Kilda two rounds back.
History tells us these two teams don’t play in many tight games. Only one game this decade has resulted in a 12 point or less margin. If you’re game enough get on Port Adelaide to clear the 25 point margin paying $4. I’m going to play it safe.
Tip: Port Adelaide H2H at odds of $2.13 – Get on at Centrebet.com
My final single for the round is the game between Brisbane and Fremantle. The Dockers are in ripping form, the best for of their entire history. But in that entire history they’ve never beaten the Lions at the Gabba. These two sides have met at the Gabba 8 times, the Lions have scored the 4 points at every occasion. 5 of the 8 games played at the Gabba have resulted in 40+ point victories to the Lions, a damning stat. Brisbane have also got a 5 game winning streak on the Dockers both home and away.
It’s hard to argue with that kind of form and even though the Lions are coming off two losses to the Swans and Melbourne I think they should bounce back playing in front of a home crowd.
Tip: Brisbane line -14.5 at odds of $1.91 – Get on at Centrebet.com
So there are my three best bets of the round. If you’re more of a risk taker you can throw them in a multi-bet for odds of $7.77.
Do you agree or disagree with my tips? Do you have you’re own betting tips? Feel free to comment below!