Written by AFL Online on 21st May 2010
You may or may not have noticed that I didn’t post my best bets article last round. I did study the round and struggled to find much value. As I look into round 9 there are a few games and markets that stick out for me this week.
First of all I’m going to completely avoid tonight big match between Collingwood and Geelong, I looked into this game long and hard and still don’t have any confidence. I think Collingwood are currently the team to beat in the competition but Geelong are still right up there. If you’re going to have a bet on this game regardless I suggest taking Total Game Points over 206.5 at $1.90 odds.
My first bet of the week is on North Melbourne at the +26.5 line. This isn’t my most confident bet of the week but a few things have won me over. First of all the history between these two teams. The Western Bulldogs haven’t cleared a 26.5 line against North Melbourne since 2004 when they won by 30 points. Not only that but since then North Melbourne have won 5 of their 8 games against the Dogs.
Both teams were on track to have big confidence boosting wins last week, the Bulldogs came away with theirs. North Melbourne weren’t so fortunate. they were on track for a 10 goal win against the Crows but failed to get the job done and conceded 7 goals to nil in the final term. This worries me however I think Brad Scott’s boys will be out to make amends.
Tip: North Melbourne +26.5 at odds of $1.91 – Get on at Centrebet.com
The next game I’m looking at is up at Darwin where Melbourne will host Port Adelaide. For this one I’m looking to take Port Adelaide to clear the 10.5 line. My reasoning for this is fairly simple. Melbourne haven’t won interstate since mid 2005. Melbourne did defeat Port Adelaide last time they met however history says that when Port Adelaide do defeat Melbourne, they destroy them. 5 of their past 6 loses to Port Adelaide have been by 10+ goals.
Tip: Port Adelaide -10.5 at odds of $1.91 – Get on at Centrebet.com
The last game I’m looking at and probably most confident about is when Brisbane travel to AAMI Stadium to take on the shambles that is Adelaide Football Club. Centrebet.com is currently offering a -7.5 line that Brisbane need to clear. Brisbane’s form hasn’t been much better in the past month to be fair, having not won a game in this period. But to their credit they have faced some tough competition. There are doubts over whether key forwards Fevola and Brown will play having flown to Adelaide at the begging of the week for treatment on groin injuries. I’m confident both will still lineup on Sunday. Brisbane has defeated Adelaide 13 times since joining the competition and in every one of those victories they have cleared 7.5 points.
Adelaide’s season is now over. The news that Bernie Vince, Matthew Jaensch and Graham Johncock will all miss after club imposed suspensions is just a kick in the guts for the Crows. Things can’t get much worse.
Tip: Brisbane Lions -7.5 at odds of $1.91 – Get on at Centrebet.com
If you’re feeling a little bit risky you can throw them all into a multi for odds of $6.96
Do you agree or disagree with my tips? Do you have you’re own betting tips? Feel free to comment below!