Written by AFL Online on 6th May 2011
I hope you had more luck than I did last week, my best bet of Sydney head-to-head last week was no good, I was lucky my tip for ‘best exotic’ came off after seeing the conditions in Sydney last Friday night.
Looking ahead to this weeks games and there are some juicy odds out there, I’ll be going against the grain of certain teams recent form and looking at statistics over a number of years.
Starting off with tonight’s clash between the cellar dwellers in Port Adelaide when they host a potential top 4 side in the Hawks. Recent form suggests that you would be mad to tip Port this week and if you’re in a tipping competition I would steer clear. However if you’re looking for a value bet then Port Adelaide at $4.80 H2H look to be overs.
These two teams met at AAMI Stadium late last year and Port Adelaide managed to creep over the line by 8 points. In the last decade Port Adelaide have won 12 of their past 18 against the Hawks, including 7 games by 40 or more points. I’m not suggesting they will thrash Hawthorn tonight but if you’re a risk taker you can get on the Hawks by 40+ paying $20. In the past 5 season Port Adelaide has won 61.2% of their games played at night whereas Hawthorn have won 51.2%. Finally the Hawks have won just 2 of their past 10 games at AAMI including a loss in Round 1 this year against Adelaide.
Port Adelaide at $4.80 H2H definitely seem to be overs this week.
My next game that’s on the agenda is the early afternoon game in Canberra between the Western Bulldogs and Sydney. If you ask me who I rate more between the Swans and the Dogs I will tell you every time that I rate the Swans higher. I’m about to contradict myself here but even with a depleted Bulldogs side with Hall, Higgins and Lake still missing it’s hard to go past the recent record of these two sides. The Bulldogs have won 6 of the past 7 against the Swans including the past 3 games between these sides played at Manuka Oval.
Bulldogs H2H at $1.70 is still value for mine.
With my next and final game for this week it might seem like I’m pushing the limits after already encouraging you to get on Port Adelaide. It is hard to ignore the $4.75 odds for West Coast to defeat Essendon this week. I like many others have had to change their stance on the Bombers this season, they’re playing some great football and humiliated the Suns last week.
West Coast have however won their last 4 matches against the Bombers, their last win against them being at Etihad Stadium. We always hear about how terrible West Coat are at travelling but here’s an interesting stat. In the past 5 season West Coast have won 44% of their games at Etihad Stadium and guess what Essendons percentage is? That’s right it’s 44% as well.
Like Port Adelaide the Eagles appear to be over the odds here and if you’re not willing to back them head-to-head consider the line of +31.5.
Port Adelaide H2H – $4.80
West Coast H2H – $4.75
Port Adelaide +25.5 – $1.92
West Coast +31.5 – $1.92
Western Bulldogs H2H – $1.70
Multi Odds – $6.26