Footy is only days away and as the build up continues I have set myself a challenge. The plan is to do a weekly multi-bet throughout the season and to make it more interesting I’ll be publishing it on AFL Online so everyone can track my progress and see how I fair throughout the season.
To make it clear I don’t plan to use a strategy. I’m just using my knowledge and opinion to make an educated guess and try to find value throughout the season.
Criticism is expected as finding value will result in picking roughies. I don’t expect to win every week, I just hope I am up at the end of the season.
Now on to Round 1…
Leg 1: Carlton – WIN – Under 39.5 Points – $2.30
First of all – I am a Carlton supporter. I think the value in this game is definitely with Richmond, they know they can beat us. They proved that in round one last season. The difference being that in round one last year Chris Judd was all the hype, the tables have turned and everyone is talking about Cuz making his debut for Richmond. At the end it comes down to preseason form. In the NAB Cup Richmond looked rusty, poor disposal which they can’t afford to take in to round one.
Leg 2: Geelong – WIN – Over 24.5 Points – $2.20
Despite being embarrased in the Grand Final last year Geelong are still a much better side than the Hawks. You have to remember they only lost one other game in 2008 and that was a massive upset. Geelong are out to seek revenge and would not have liked seeing Hawthorn president Jeff Kennett having a dig at the Cats mental strength against the Hawks. I’m expecting Geelong to be in control for the majority of the game and take a comfortable win against an underdone Hawks side.
Leg 3: Brisbane – WIN – Under 24.5 Points – $3.85
Brisbane have not lost a round one game at the Gabba in over a decade and should keep the record going. But not without a hard fought fight from the Eagles who are looking to set amends on a poor 2008 season. Brisbane are short favorites head to head but with a forecast of showers I couldn’t go past the $3.85 odds and had to put them in my multi. Adding to the forecast Brisbane could be without Gun midfielder Simon Black and a number of players haven’t had the ideal preseason.
Leg 4: Port Adelaide – WIN – Under 39.5 Points – $2.20
I was very tempted to have a dip at Essendon in this match, there is plenty of value with them and I think they’re a genuine chance. That said I still think Port Adelaide will win, they’re going into the match with a full strength side as opposed to Essendon who have once again had a number of injury setbacks over the preseason. I’m tipping Port in relatively close match.
Multi-Bet Value: $42.85
Potential Payout: $428.58
Notes: Could have easily put Collingwood and North Melbourne in there for the head to head win but decided to to risk it. Honestlythink Adelaide and Melbourne are every chance at winning this week and picking 6 winners in round one is always a hard task.
Keep in mind at the time this was published round one teams had not been released.
Think I’m on the right track? Where have I gone wrong? Comment below!